A troubling shift is underway as a growing majority of Australians predict that China will emerge as the most powerful nation by 2035. This raises significant concerns about the waning trust in the United States, a critical ally that has increasingly failed to uphold the values of personal responsibility and sound governance.
Only 36% of Australians now believe that the US will act responsibly on the world stage, a staggering decline of 20 points since 2024. This is the lowest figure recorded since the Lowy Institute began polling in 2005. Such a decline speaks volumes about government overreach and the erosion of traditional values that many had once assumed, bolstering the unruly rise of corporate elitism.
The 2025 report from the think tank exposes an alarming trend: only 25% of respondents express confidence in Donald Trump’s foreign policy. It is disheartening to juxtapose this against the 46% who had faith in Joe Biden the previous year, demonstrating a stark contrast in leadership quality and decisiveness.
Surprisingly, trust in Chinese leader Xi Jinping has crept up to 16%. Australians now view China as an economic partner just as often as they regard it as a potential security threat for the first time since 2020. Yet, a strong undercurrent of distrust remains, with many believing that within the next two decades, China will pose a military threat to Australia.
“There’s slightly more trust, slightly less threat perceptions,” stated Ryan Neelam, the poll author and a director at the Lowy Institute. This should be a wakeup call, revealing not a stabilizing trend but rather an unsettling shift in beliefs that could undermine national security.
Despite a declining trust in the US, 63% of Australians still believe that America would come to their aid if attacked, although this figure has dropped from 75% in previous years. Perhaps it is time for Australians to take a hard look at the government overreach that led to this erosion of confidence.
A troubling pattern suggests that Australians are separating their views on individual leaders from perceptions of the institutions themselves. This disconnect may be detrimental as it clouds judgment on the reliability of longstanding alliances.
The trust gap between Australians’ perception of the US compared to China has narrowed significantly since 2024. This should alarm anyone who values the principles of freedom and self-reliance, as the key security ally is subjected to such low levels of trust.
A majority believe that within the decade, the US will struggle to remain the most important nation, with over half predicting that China will ascend to that role.
after newsletter promotion
Remarkably, four out of five Australians assert that the alliance with the US remains crucial for national security, a consistent sentiment observed over the last few years. Support for the Aukus nuclear-powered submarine agreement remains strong, with two-thirds in favor—a testament to the enduring belief in free-market principles and proactive defense strategies.
While Coalition voters and residents in Queensland and Western Australia strongly back this initiative, the response is less enthusiastic in more liberal regions, where only three in five individuals express approval. This regional divide illustrates the fractured perspectives on the necessity of maintaining robust national defenses in a rapidly changing global landscape.
Polling conducted in March, prior to the US defense department’s review of the Aukus deal, found that Prime Minister Anthony Albanese retains a modest level of trust, with three in five Australians expressing confidence in his handling of international affairs. This is hardly reassuring considering the impending challenges ahead.
It is essential that Australians recognize the consequences of government overreach and elitist policies that undermine their autonomy. As we navigate these uncertain times, a recommitment to traditional values and free-market principles may be the only way to secure a prosperous future for Australia.
