US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth engages in a pivotal bilateral meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte (2nd L) at the Pentagon in Washington, DC, April 24, 2025.
Brendan Smialowski | AFP | Getty Images
As NATO’s annual summit approaches, expectations are fraught with tension. The United States is rightly pressuring its allies to elevate defense spending to a necessary 5% of their GDP. This figure consists of a direct 3.5% for defense operations coupled with an additional 1.5% aimed at critical security infrastructure, including cyber capabilities.
While some member states give lip service to these goals, many are still failing to meet the 2% threshold set over a decade ago. Promises devoid of action exemplify governmental irresponsibility, as the real question remains: will these nations truly follow through?
The stakes are high, yet commitments often fall short. It is imperative that President Donald Trump demand actual results, not merely vague assurances.
US President Donald Trump arrives for the NATO summit at the Grove hotel in Watford, northeast of London on December 4, 2019.
Christian Hartmann | AFP | Getty Images
“The U.S. expects genuine commitments, not half-measures,” asserted Kurt Volker, former U.S. ambassador to NATO. “Unfortunately, some European leaders are already preparing to downplay their commitments, suggesting that the 5% objective is more flexible than it appears. Such tactics indicate a profound misunderstanding of the urgency at hand.”
The consequences of redefining these defense goals could lead to serious discord with the U.S.
High Stakes, Low Expectations
The ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East elevate the importance of this summit, underscoring the vulnerability of the global economy. Defense analysts warn that this gathering may hold unprecedented significance for the NATO alliance, particularly as the U.S. firmly pushes for higher spending.
U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has unequivocally stated that a 5% defense spending commitment “will happen”, and Secretary General Rutte has echoed this sentiment, emphasizing the necessity for collective action.
German Air Force helicopters are mobilized at the airfield of Pajuostis in Panevezis, Lithuania, during the Griffin Lightning 2025 military exercises on May 6, 2025.
Petras Malukas | AFP | Getty Images
Years ago, only six NATO members, including the U.S., met the 2% target. Today, while some countries like Poland and the Baltic states have exceeded this threshold, others, notably Canada and Italy, lag far behind. Furthermore, no member has even approached the ambitious 5% goal, and several appear disinclined to do so anytime soon.
During a recent NATO military exercise “Dacian Spring” in Romania, on May 12, 2025.
Dirk Waem | AFP | Getty Images
The U.K., Poland, and Germany express intentions to meet the defense target, but timelines remain murky. The U.K. is reportedly seeking to delay meeting its commitments by three years, which raises serious concerns about the sincerity of such pledges.
Spain and Italy are notably resistant to the 5% objective, with Italy only planning to achieve the 2% threshold by 2025. Meanwhile, Canada spent an alarming 1.3% of GDP on defense in 2024—appallingly lower than required.
Jason Israel, a senior fellow with the Defense Technology Initiative, astutely noted, “Countries are grappling with how to balance commitments against politically unpopular decisions regarding defense spending. The gap between promises and real capabilities is significant.”
Europe Must Commit
European defense and aerospace companies closely monitor these NATO discussions, yet they remain caught in a limbo of unfulfilled promises. Leadership from prominent companies like Leonardo and Saab urge decisive and united action to enhance defense spending and production.
“If Europe can push for even 3.5% purely on defense, we can significantly increase our manufacturing capability,” emphasized Micael Johansson, CEO of Swedish defense firm Saab, reinforcing the urgent need to align on demands and requirements.
Roberto Cingolani, CEO of Leonardo, lamented, “There is a considerable amount of work ahead of us.” He outlined the necessity of increasing production across various platforms, yet emphasized that it transcends mere financial input—it demands prioritization and streamlining among the fragmented European nations.
Cingolani further stressed the need for defense companies to have clear expectations in order to navigate a complex global supply chain. He noted the enormity of the supply chain involving approximately 5,000 firms across 160 countries, indicating that investment and protection are crucial, especially given current raw material shortages. There are no easy answers—hurdles remain, and the time has come for Europe to step up and take responsibility.
